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If UNC is to get back to Final Four contention this year, incoming freshman Elliot Cadeau will likely need to live up to the lofty expectations fans have for him. While Wojcik, Ryan, and Ingram could all provide offensive upgrades, it's Cadeau whose most likely to truly break out and give the Heels a third difference maker on offense. Insterestingly, Paxson Wojcik started over Cadeau in the exhibition against St. Augustine, indicating Hubert still is looking for some improvements from Cadeau. But how can Cadeau help the Heels?
The biggest difference between Elliot Cadeau and what we saw in previous years from RJ and Caleb Love is the next-level passing. Cadeau is able to create an advantage off the dribble, and then capitalize on that even when the help defense comes. See this alley oop to Jalen from the exhibition: Or this no-look pass on a fast break:
In the scrimmage earlier in October Cadeau showed a nice crossover, beating RJ off the dribble and then making a nice skip pass to an open shooter when the help comes.
He can draw the help defender because he still has the ability to finish. Watch this nice clip:
You can see Cadeau's unselfishness on display in this clip. While he doesn't get an assist, he twice kicks to RJ for open threes, and eventually the possession ends with a Wojcik trey:
His decision making appears sound. He can get to the rim with relative ease (albeit we haven't seen him against high level college defenders yet) and find open guys all over the court. He has a lot of the requisite skills to be a good lead guard.
The downside: Defense
Defensively he's relatively small and could get picked on. Watch this fast break where he doesn't make a particularly strong effort preventing even a D2 guard from getting to the rim.
Here you see him with a light press. It doesn't impact things greatly, and then in the halfcourt he's playing far enough off his defender that he simply rises up and shoots over him. The shooter doesn't even need to make a mood, and Cadeau isn't tall enough to offer much of a contest.
I'm only show a couple of possessions here, but they're representative of a larger point. Cadeau is a relatively small, weaker guard at this level. Going to have to be super tough to hang in there and defend against bigger, older guys.
Why Paxson Wojcik may start Game One
Likely Wojcik will keep the starter job at the start of the season due to his defense, size, and experience. RJ will get a chance to run the show, while Cadeau should see minimum 20-25 minutes off the bench. Defense wasn't a strong suit of the team last year (we were 46th in the country on D per Kenpom), and we're losing our best defender in Leaky Black. A backcourt of RJ and Cadeau would be extremely undersized, so Hubert probably wants a more conventional looking lineup. Cadeau should still get plenty of minutes, and if his offensive is too explosive to contain he'll likely eventually become a starter.
How good can Cadeau be?
We need to see more of Elliot against D1 defenses, but in the very limited sample he appears to be UNC's best ball handler in awhile. He's also shown elite passing at every stage of his career, and so long as he's able to get himself open he'll create lots of high value possessions on offense. We don't know how good of a finisher he is yet, but with the weapons around him he doesn't need to be an elite scorer. If his shot is real it will facilitate his offensive game in two ways: it'll keep defenses from sagging off him (which helps his penetration ability and opens up passing lanes off of cuts -- something he's shown to be adept at) and allow him to play off-ball with RJ initiating or Bacot posting up. He had strong numbers in his final EYBL season, shooting 39% from 3 and 92% from the line. If he can end up anywhere near that in college he'll add a lot of value with his shooting. Defense is likely to be slow going due to the typical freshman learning curve and his lack of size. He is likely trying to add muscle, and hopefully he's studying hard to add as much as he can to his off ball awareness and overall technique. If he can even be average here (which is not a given -- RJ is still struggling with a lot of things defensively) and his shooting holds up UNC's offense may be tough enough to overcome some defensive issues. When he's in the game Hubert should try to surround him with defenders and shooters to maximize his overall skillset.
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The Heels lapped St. Augustine Friday night, winning 117 - 53. It's tough to get a true sense of the team just yet due to the low quality opponent (St. Augustine's is Division 2), but the guys looked pretty good. We saw significant improvements over last year in a few areas: Passing: We had 23 assists in this game, which was more than the Heels had in any game last season except the Citadel game. In fact, they only had three games with 20+ assists. We should note that the team also coincidentally had 23 assists in the exhibition game last year vs Johnson C Smith, so we'll have to see if it can hold up versus better competition. Of note though, Cadeau looks to be much improved over the lead guard play we had last season. His outside shot wasn't falling today, but he continues to resemble Cole Anthony and Coby White in his ability to knife through defenses. He was 3-4 on drives and had 4 assists, with a couple more that could've been finished by his teammates. He also only had 1 turnover, which is pretty low given his ball dominant play in 22 minutes. Cadeau could help the team sustain this passing ability, and a couple of his new teammates (Ingram in particular) also showed ability passing the ball. Shooting: The Heels also shot the ball really well from deep, going 16 - 35, or 46%. That would've tied the most threes hit in all of 22-23. There were only seven games the 22-23 Heels even had double digit three pointers. Cormac Ryan is sure to be a large shooting upgrade over Leaky; if the team can get a couple of Ingram, Wojcik, or Withers to also be reliable shooters this offense will be hard to stop. That'll give Davis + Cadeau the spacing they need to penetrate, while also allowing Bacot to post up without being doubled. So far this looks really promising as a potential improvement area for the team. In case you're wondering, in the 22-23 exhibition they hit 11 threes (11-35) in the exhibition last year, so it's not all a competition thing. Interior Defense and Rebounding: This is one area to be especially skeptical as it was a Division 2 team, but the Heels hardly allowed their opponents an offensive rebound and showed off some impressive blocks. They allowed St. Augustine to rebound only 17% of their misses and blocked 8 shots, which they only eclipsed once in the 22-23 season, in the 4 OT game vs Alabama. Okonkwo and High both seem to have some rim protecting ability, and High's shown other defensive versatility, with a really strong closeout on a three in this game that he almost blocked. One thing that wasn't so great: Turnovers: The Heels had 12 turnovers yesterday, which is pretty poor given the competition. Some of that is due to playing their depth bigs more (whose hands were a bit clunky), but Bacot and Wojcik both had three turnovers. To take the next step Bacot's really got to pass out more and ensure he doesn't force things inside, as that leads to fouls or ball strips. And Wojcik, well, you can't be a 5th year off-ball player and commit 3 turnovers. He needs to be a dependable guy with the ball if he's going to get major minutes. See highlights below: It's the eve of our exhibition game, but I wanted to get some quick thoughts up on the scrimmage from two weeks ago. Stats aren't readily available for this game, so I'll just provide some scouting thoughts.
The good Elliot Cadeau: Cadeau looked electric on offense, with plenty of dishes, drives, and jumpers to show off some of what's been missing offensively the last few years. We really needed a strong primary initiator, and may hve found him in Cadeau. It's not just his scoring ability that flashed, but also that he smartly picked his spots and could find the open man, even in tight spaces. He also showed enough shooting (several deep threes) that teams may not be able to sag off of him. A lot to like here! Big man depth: UNC is hoping to have support for Bacot upfront (or at least to be able to give him a rest), after back-to-back years where the starting 4 had to also double as backup center. Adding James Okonkwo + Zayden High plus getting Jalen Washington healthy should adequately fill this gap. All three showed promise in spots, with High in particular getting some tough boards and finishes. Okonkwo looks like he may be the best defender of the group, and there should be healthy competition here. The bad: The forwards: UNC has an all-new forward group with Harrison Ingram, Cormac Ryan, and Jae'lyn Withers -- unfortunately they didn't show out tonight. Ingram and Withers both looked uncomfortable in the offense, forcing some things for turnovers and appearing too timid at other times. Neither scored much in this game. Ryan took quite a few shots but mostly was offline. It's nothing to get hugely concerned about, but we'll have to see if Ingram + Withers can rebound from disappointing seasons last year. Armando Bacot: Bacot probably had a good stat line in this game, but I was hoping he'd be a smarter distributor with the ball. This team should have more offensive weapons than we saw last year, meaning Bacot can kick it out when double teams come. Instead, we saw bad habits continue, with him forcing some shots inside that ended up missing. Hopefully we'll see him continue approving in this area when the games matter. That's all for now. UNC also had a secret scrimmage vs FAU that they apparently won. There are also rumors that Paxson Wojcik is going to start over Elliot Cadeau, which is... interesting. More on that if we see it in the exhibition tonight. After a roughly two year hiatus, I've decided to return to writing about UNC basketball. Thanks for bearing with me.
Tomorrow is the Carolina Basketball late night event, which means it's the first time we'll get to see Eliot Cadeau, Harrison Ingram, Cormac Ryan, and the rest of the team's new additions. I'm super excited to see how the new team looks -- there are more cohesive offensive parts this year to get the most out of Davis and Bacot. I think caution is warranted after the last few years, and Davis needs to get more out of the bench, but tomorrow should be an interesting first look. Stay tuned for more analysis. |
AuthorI'm a UNC grad and big-time Heels fan. I launched this site in October 2021 because I felt like there was a dearth of analytics for UNC basketball fans and wanted a spot to speculate, comment, and scrutinize all things UNC hoops. Hope you enjoy! Archives
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